The race for Republican delegates

Paul Smith

Paul Smith - The Republican race for the presidential nomination is all about the delegates. Score 1,144 delegates and the nomination is yours. But it is a complicated process, with delegate procedure varying greatly from state to state. Unfortunately, the national media makes no attempt to understand these intricacies, opting instead to report delegate totals in a way that misrepresents the facts. I hope to give readers a more accurate picture of the delegate situation—and of the status of the race in general.

As of today, 32 states have voted, accounting for a total of 1291 delegates. Some states (like Florida) gave the winner every delegate. Some (like New Hampshire) awarded their delegates proportionally.  Thus far, these two sorts of states have awarded a total of 913 delegates. These 913 delegates are bound, meaning they must support a certain candidate. Of these, we know that Mitt Romney has 554, Rick Santorum 197, Newt Gingrich 129, and Ron Paul 33.  

But 1291 (the total number of delegates so far) minus 913 (the total number of bound delegates) still leaves 378 delegates. So what of these other 378 delegates? Who gets them? This question is ignored by the media, who like to pretend that these delegates are awarded in the same manner as mentioned above. But the truth is that many states hold caucuses instead of primaries, and do not award their delegates to any specific candidate. Their delegates are unbound: they may support any candidate they choose at the Republican National Convention.

Here lies the strength of the Ron Paul campaign. In each of these caucus states, the campaign has organized concerted efforts to get Ron Paul supporters elected as these unbound delegates. This strategy is paying off immensely:  initial results indicate that Ron Paul will control a majority of those 378 delegates at the convention. The collapse of the Rick Santorum campaign also bodes well for Ron Paul’s delegate count. As noted earlier, Santorum has been awarded 197 bound delegates. But now that he is out of the race, these delegates will become unbound, meaning that they can vote their conscience at the convention. And many of those delegates just happen to be anti-establishment folks who have now turned to Ron Paul as the last remaining conservative in the race.

When these facts about the delegates are taken into account, it is clear that the race is far from over. A more realistic analysis of the delegate race would put Paul close behind Romney—in second place with somewhere between three and four hundred delegates.

Now, New Mexico is a proportional primary state that awards bound delegates to each candidate who receives fifteen percent or more of the vote.  We New Mexico Republicans faced a similar choice in our 2008 primary: a career moderate, or Ron Paul. We chose the moderate, John McCain, and we got four years of Barack Obama. I encourage all Republicans to consider supporting Dr. Paul, the only candidate who can beat the current president.  Don’t be misled by the media’s shoddy reporting.  Stand up, be counted, and help return the Republican Party to the Constitution, and the presidency of the United States. 

Paul Smith is a Grassroots Coordinator for the Ron Paul Presidential Campaign in Dona Ana County. He has worked with the campaign since January, traveling in an official role to Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, and Louisiana before returning to the Mesilla Valley this month to assist the grassroots movement. The founder of Aggies for Ron Paul, a chapter of the national campaign’s Youth For Ron Paul directive, Paul earned his Bachelor of Arts degree from Hillsdale College, MI, where he majored in English Literature and Religious Studies. 

The race for Republican delegates