NewsNM note - (Spence) According to our highest ranking member of the armed forces (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), Iran does have the ability to do what President Obama has already done. It can block the free flow of oil. There are differences. Iran might use its navy for the blockade, while the president has managed to accomplish the same thing on the Keystone XL pipeline with the stroke of a pen. And the president can and will use the U.S. navy to free up the free flow of crude oil in the Persian Gulf, while he refuses to do the same in North America.
Bloomberg - Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz “for a period of time,” and the U.S. would take action to reopen it, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said. “They’ve invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz,” Dempsey said in an interview aired yesterday on the CBS “Face the Nation” program. “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that.” Should Iran try to close Hormuz, the U.S. “would take action and reopen” the waterway, said Dempsey, President Barack Obama’s top military adviser.
Bloomberg - Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz “for a period of time,” and the U.S. would take action to reopen it, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said. “They’ve invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz,” Dempsey said in an interview aired yesterday on the CBS “Face the Nation” program. “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that.” Should Iran try to close Hormuz, the U.S. “would take action and reopen” the waterway, said Dempsey, President Barack Obama’s top military adviser.
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping lane linking the Gulf of Oman with the Persian Gulf, would constitute a “red line” for the U.S., as would Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on the same program. The U.S. tightened economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program on Dec. 31, and the European Union is weighing a ban later this month on purchases of Iranian crude. Read full story here: News New Mexico
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Speaking as a retired US Navy Surface Warfare Officer and former Combat Systems Officer of the USS WADDELL (DDG-24) from March 1989 to September 1900, the "period of time" that Gen. Dempsey speaks of would be very short, unless the US Navy and Air Force were not allowed to use their full capabilities by the US civilian leadership.
The Iranian's best hope would be to attempt to mine the Strait, but I have no doubt that the Strait is under constant drone surveillance, which means that even at night, every dhow leaving the Iranian coast is tracked and videoed. The hard part of mine hunting is finding them, but when the tracks of the mine layers are known, the job becomes immensely easier.
If the Iranian navy was dumb enough to try to directly attack either civilian or naval vessels, they would quickly learn how vulnerable unarmored boats are to fragmentation warheads. You don't need to directly hit a small zig-zagging boat, only detonate an HE warhead near it. The fire control solution becomes easier because as much as the target is trying to dodge, it still has come toward the target. Also, every non-combatant vessel from other countries would quickly leave the area. No more trying to separate combatants from neutrals. Every vessel left in the area would become a valid target.
Lastly, because of the drone surveillance, the location of every Iranian port or pier is known, and again easily targeted.
If the Iranian navy tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military was not kept on a short leash, the resulting "battle" would resemble the naval version of Gulf War I's 100-hour war, or WWII's Great Marianas Turkey Shoot.
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